Even before Hurricane Katrina, my co-workers and I kept on eye on the tropics. Today we do it even more so. So it shouldn't be surprising that we've been following the ups and downs of Invest 92L, or as Dr. Jeff Masters at the The Weather Underground calls it The Joker.
See this thing has had so many ups and downs, it's funny. Yesterday, once again, it was expected to dissipate. The day before it was expected to be a tropical depression.
And like a true joker, today or tomorrow morning, it is once again expected to be a tropical depression. Day by day, the NHC map has changed from red(high probability of development) to yellow(medium probability). See the lovely shade of red:
Even though surrounded by dry air from the Sahara, The Joker refuses to quit. Good news, for the Gulf of Mexico region at least, the latest computer models show The Joker heading for the Bahamas.
The bad thing is, even as a tropical depression, the heavy rains usually associated with those systems can cause heavy rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The flooding has the potential to be deadly to those in the mountainous regions.
Yesterday, the computer models were showing The Joker heading between Florida and Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front coming through has changed that scenario. Keep alert on the East Coast.